In our modern society , bicycle thievery is nearly as difficult to measure as sex. Incidents of either can cause a lot of outrage, consternation, or glee (depending on your role in the situation), but rarely are they methodically documented. I myself had my bike stolen last year and although I was devastated, did I register the offense with anyone other than my sympathetic roommates? Absolutely not. This makes it rather difficult to answer a vexing question of late — how much has bike theft increased since the start of the pandemic?
The public health measures instantiated in most cities at the start of the pandemic wildly increased the utility and desirability of a bicycle. It was an activity you could partake in outside, relatively safe from deadly viruses and judgmental neighbors. At the same time, public transportation — never valued for its cleanliness in the first place — suddenly became less appealing, and biking replaced it as the most viable transportation alternative.
It seemed as if all of America realized these facts at once. During the month of April in 2020, bicycle sales increased 75 percent compared to the previous year. Monthly sales topped one billion dollars for the first time ever recorded. At the same time, countries imposing COIVD-related restrictions on shipping crews resulted in a labor shortage in the industry — a problem because many bikes and their parts are made in China, Vietnam, or Taiwan.
With most manufacturers predicting bicycle shortages to continue into 2022, there has never been a more lucrative time to be a bike thief. As well as my own, my partner’s bike was also stolen over the course of the pandemic — despite both us securing our babies up with multiple U-locks to substantial pieces of metal. In my case, my poor Wilbur was stolen right off my front porch. Because the U-lock was so thick, the culprit sawed through the metal railing instead.
All of this lead me to investigate: what have been the bike thievery trends of late? Bike Index, a bike registry site started in 2013, has a convenient API for just such a purpose. After a little finagling, I managed to pull enough data to confirm my worst suspicions — 2020 has been the worst year for stolen bikes yet. And while 2021 has only just begun, it’s already shaping up to be just as bad.
Of course, the biggest brands are also the biggest targets. But some of the brands might be especially vulnerable — Kona, Fuji, and Norco Bikes are stolen at a much higher rate than their respective marketshare, for instance.
Next up: location. Everyone knows, or complains about, having the worst bike thievery, but here are the facts (at least according to data from Bike Index):
As for which cities have gotten worse (or at least, which cities have had more stolen bikes registered on the website)… San Francisco has had the biggest overall percentage increase between 2019 and 2020, and it wasn’t doing great to begin with. One hopes that all these bikes were stolen from rich techies who can afford it, but life doesn’t usually work that way. Also, Canada is clearly not as nice as it is stereotyped to be:
What bike brands do you need to be particularly wary of? Specializeds and Treks are vulnerable everywhere, but if you live in New Orleans, keep your Schwinns close..
And finally, duller colors probably have better resale value:
My advice to you, after this investigation? Buy a pink, off-brand bike, move to the South (where it may be too humid to bike anyway), cover it in stickers and tape, and sleep with it next your bed, one eye open. Best of luck and happy riding!
